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One Czech dealer e-mailed me that he just spoke with the importer and there won't be any more allocations for the EU :oops:
So this means no chance of seeing the car in any of the Nordic countries? No news of this car in Norway yet. And I just checked the Norwegian Toyota site. I had bookmarked the page saying 'Coming soon on the GR86, but they have now redesigned the whole page and the link is dead. There is also no info about the GR86 on the new webpage, all references seem to be gone. Have to check with my dealer tomorrow.
 
No more allocations does not mean, that no more cars will be sold.
It means, that all the cars, that will be sold have been allocated == "reserved".
Thanks for clearing that up. Still it could mean that:
1) allocations == all already placed orders by customers so far
2) allocations == all already placed orders + dealers reserving their car orders for future 2 years.

I still hope it is the 2), since going by the past rumours we should see about 4500 cars for the EU market. So far it seems only part of that number has been ordered/allocated, judging by how many cars were available in different countries for sale.
 
Thanks for clearing that up. Still it could mean that:
1) allocations == all already placed orders by customers so far
2) allocations == all already placed orders + dealers reserving their car orders for future 2 years.

I still hope it is the 2), since going by the past rumours we should see about 4500 cars for the EU market. So far it seems only part of that number has been ordered/allocated, judging by how many cars were available in different countries for sale.
Im not 100% sure.

But in my understanding an allocation is something like an reservation. (Thats how its used in IT, you allocate/reserve memory).
Also the German translation of this word supports that.

So my idea is the following:

That factory has an output of (lets say) 10000 cars a year.
Importers allocate/reserve an ammount of them.
Every Importer has its own allocations.
e.g.
  • 590 for Toyota Germany in 2022
  • 2000 for Toyota Germany in 2023
  • 150 for Emil Frey in 2022
  • 500 for Emil Frey in 2023
These are not specfic cars like e.g. car number 350 to car number 940, but they are guarantied to get 590 cars, of the production until June.
The factory schedules the batches as needed (because of different trims and variants, LDH, RDH, euro-spec, US-Spec ect)

So Toyota Germany had allocated/reserved 590 cars for 2022.
Dealers can buy these cars for themselves (showroom, stock) or for customers until the number of 590 is reached.
If the allocation is filled with orders - = 590 cars are ordered by dealers - the specific importer can sell no more cars. -> The model is temporarly sold out for Germany.

All this is steered by Toyota to make a "fair" distribution between the marktes/countries. That means, the importers cannot allocate as many cars, as they would like. Because the factory output is limited. And because Toyota does not want too many cars in Europe, because of Greta-Taxes...

So the current situation is for Germany: all allocated cars are sold to dealers/customers.
Dealers dont take orders, but reserverations and put them on a list for the importer (Toyota Germany).

The importer has reserverd/allocated 2000 cars (that was a rumor) of the 2023 production.
Because its not sure, if they can produce all these cars, there are no written contracts with every custumer (first come first serve).

There must be at least two batches/allocations for the 2023 (or late 2022) cars, because some people where able to place a written order and were told to get their cars in mid 2023.

Because of our shitty EU rules, you cannot register a new GR86 after June 2024 and that menas, that the importers will not make any more allocations/reservation for cars produced after (lets say) march 2024 (needs 3 to 4 weeks on ship + 3 weeks to get to the customer).

So: The importers have allocated cars (each importer has their own batch/allocation).
Some of them are allready sold, some are not (*), because they will be produced later.
After these allocated cars are sold to dealers(customers), there will be no more cars for europe.

So the only cars, you can buy are the allocated ones, that are not sold to dealers, yet (*) and the ones, dealers ordered for themselves as showroom cars and for stock.
 
This total allocation number is interesting. If we see 4500 (ish) as the total European allocation up to the end of production in Q2 2024 and take a pro rata calculation of production months per year as follows:

2022 - 8 months production = 1385 cars
2023 - 12 months production = 2080 cars
2024 - 6 months production = 1040 cars

The UK got 430 cars for the full period but let's say they get another 20 somewhere and end up with 10% total allocation

If the rumours are true that Germany has 590 in 2022 and 2000 in 2023 and surely get's a few more in 2024 (let's say 110) then they will get 60% of the total European allocation.

If Germany gets 590 in 2022 alone that's about 43% of total allocation.

So DE + UK have 70% of the total allocations which leaves 30% for the rest of Europe. As a number of countries are not getting the car it seems that the following countries have 1350 cars in total available for the full allocation run;

Austria
Belgium
France
Italy
Netherlands
Poland ?
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Switzerland
 
Poland had only 50 cars in the first batch.
There were rumors, that they will receive 100 more, i think...

That whole thing is real shame...
I just dont get, why they sold the cars in the US first (because they dont have this 2024 limit).
 
Im not 100% sure.

But in my understanding an allocation is something like an reservation. (Thats hot its used in IT, you allocate/reserve memory).
Also the german translation of this word supports that.
Excellent write-up and great analysis @Kosh , I think your description of the situation and the logistics / procurement process is right.

The UK got 430 cars for the full period but let's say they get another 20 somewhere and end up with 10% total allocation

If the rumours are true that Germany has 590 in 2022 and 2000 in 2023 and surely get's a few more in 2024 (let's say 110) then they will get 60% of the total European allocation.
Maybe the UK counts as a separate market, so the 430 cars are still heading to EU member countries. Still, we are basing our assumptions on shaky grounds, all these numbers were just rumors, maybe we are trying to extrapolate more information out of it than there really is... And what about Czech Republic missing in that list? :D
 
Poland had only 50 cars in the first batch.
There were rumors, that they will receive 100 more, i think...

That whole thing is real shame...
I just dont get, why they sold the cars in the US first (because they dont have this 2024 limit).
It's a shame for us but the reality is the US is far more important for Toyota and definitely for Subaru. They will probably sell this car over there for 8-10 years. We are but a temporary sales bump.
 
Excellent write-up and great analysis @Kosh , I think your description of the situation and the logistics / procurement process is right.



Maybe the UK counts as a separate market, so the 430 cars are still heading to EU member countries. Still, we are basing our assumptions on shaky grounds, all these numbers were just rumors, maybe we are trying to extrapolate more information out of it than there really is... And what about Czech Republic missing in that list? :D
Apologies, I'm only one coffee in ;) . I have no clue about some other countries. Denmark, Greece, Hungary etc.

For sure it's not a fully backed up hypothesis. Will DE really take 60% total European allocation !
 
Poland had only 50 cars in the first batch.
There were rumors, that they will receive 100 more, i think...

That whole thing is real shame...
I just dont get, why they sold the cars in the US first (because they dont have this 2024 limit).
From what I understand they are trying not to sell too many cars in Europe because of the fines automotive companies are getting for selling cars with above average CO2 emissions here? I think it is the same story as with Suzuki Jimny few years ago. I had one ordered but I never got one and the dealer cancelled my order eventually.
 
From what I understand they are trying not to sell too many cars in Europe because of the fines automotive companies are getting for selling cars with above average CO2 emissions here? I think it is the same story as with Suzuki Jimny few years ago. I had one ordered but I never got one and the dealer cancelled my order eventually.
Yeah, this is what i call "Greta-Taxes" ;)

Toyota can compensate the very high CO2-Rates of the GR86 with all its Hybrids.
But only, if they dont sell too much cars...
 
Hi, that all sounds very reasonable, I'm sure you're about right, the amount of 2024 cars are probably limited by the amount of bz4x and hybrid sale numbers that are yet unknown.
As for Finland, I got a dealer to phone the importer and the word was that, at this time, there isn't a plan to bring the car to FI at all, same as Norway I guess. Serves us right for choosing to live on the damn northern circle. I've got an importing company looking for any open reservation lists in europe but I'm not holding my breath.
 
This total allocation number is interesting. If we see 4500 (ish) as the total European allocation up to the end of production in Q2 2024 and take a pro rata calculation of production months per year as follows:

2022 - 8 months production = 1385 cars
2023 - 12 months production = 2080 cars
2024 - 6 months production = 1040 cars

The UK got 430 cars for the full period but let's say they get another 20 somewhere and end up with 10% total allocation

If the rumours are true that Germany has 590 in 2022 and 2000 in 2023 and surely get's a few more in 2024 (let's say 110) then they will get 60% of the total European allocation.

If Germany gets 590 in 2022 alone that's about 43% of total allocation.

So DE + UK have 70% of the total allocations which leaves 30% for the rest of Europe. As a number of countries are not getting the car it seems that the following countries have 1350 cars in total available for the full allocation run;

Austria
Belgium
France
Italy
Netherlands
Poland ?
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Switzerland
I think the 4500 number could increase since Toyota Spain said they asked for 500 units until 2024, only having 100 for this year. That wouldn't follow the rate.
 
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